Week 8 Breakdown: Game by Game

Both teams are coming off duds. Carolina got run over by the Bucs, 43-13, and Green Bay dropped a 20-17 game in Detroit. Somebody bounces back on a short week, and I like the game script where Carolina gets its passing game going.

• Josh Jacobs (RB, GB, 19.0 proj): He's back and he's the RB1. 16 touches and 7 targets in his first game back, at home on a short week. Volume is on his side.
• Tetairoa McMillan (WR, CAR, 15.3 proj): The alpha at over a quarter of the targets. Last week let me down, so he owes me.
• Jalen Coker (WR, CAR, 12.2 proj): About a 23% share when healthy. Watch his shoulder.
• Bryce Young (QB, CAR, 16.5 proj): Gets a pass defense Detroit just carved up for 300.
• Chuba Hubbard (RB, CAR, 14.7 proj): Steady floor. Carolina's run defense is the weakest unit on either side, but Green Bay's is giving up RB points too.

Stack: Young + McMillan + Coker, brought back with Jacobs. In Showdown, McMillan or Young at captain with Jacobs, or Jacobs at captain if Green Bay wins it on the ground.

Showdown-only darts: Trevor Etienne (RB, CAR, $3,200 in Showdown) had 6 carries and 2 catches next to Hubbard's 7 last week. John Metchie III (WR, CAR) has 17 targets in 4 games as the third receiver.

This should be the most popular game on the slate. Dallas is coming off a Monday night win, and that's a spot where a team can come out flat. Arizona's prices went up, but this is where I want to build.

Arizona is my lead.

• Trey McBride (TE, ARI, 19.2 proj): My favorite play on the slate. Dallas rarely blitzes, and McBride is at his best when he isn't blitzed, with a 31% target share.
• Jacoby Brissett (QB, ARI, 20.3 proj): Cheap QB in one of the fastest games on the slate, against a Dallas defense that ranks last in EPA.
• Michael Wilson (WR, ARI, 14.6 proj): The second piece in an Arizona stack.
• Jeremiyah Love (RB, ARI, Q, 9.4 proj): Only if he's cleared. Dallas allows 4.9 yards per carry.

Bring it back with any Dallas piece: CeeDee Lamb (24.2), Dak Prescott (21.7), Javonte Williams (21.0) or George Pickens (16.1). Arizona's zone-heavy defense gives up the 2nd-most QB points.

Stack: Brissett + McBride + Wilson, with one Dallas run-back. Because everybody will be here, pair it with the Detroit build below to stay different.

This is my leverage game of the week. ARI@DAL should draw the crowd, and Detroit's weapons can beat this Minnesota defense in a dome.

• Jahmyr Gibbs (RB, DET, 24.7 proj): The best player on the slate and the core of the build.
• Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR, DET, Q, 18.9 proj): Minnesota blitzes more than anyone, and St. Brown sees 38% of the targets when teams blitz. Watch his status.
• Jared Goff (QB, DET, 19.2 proj), Jameson Williams (WR, 13.8) and Sam LaPorta (TE, 10.8): All in play for a full Detroit stack.
• Lions DST ($2,700): In play at the price.

Minnesota: I'm skeptical of this offense. Kyler Murray (17.1 proj) has no run game behind him. Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison are okay. I'm fading T.J. Hockenson. I don't see a Kyler-plus-Gibbs game stack hitting; this is a Detroit build.

If Jacksonville controls this one, the run game and defense carry it.

• Bhayshul Tuten (RB, JAX, 14.7 proj): Core play. Indy allows 5.0 yards per carry, and the heavier boxes they play don't bother him.
• Jaguars DST ($3,700): Core play.
• Trevor Lawrence (QB, 21.0) and Parker Washington (WR, 14.3): The Jacksonville passing side if you want more.
• Jonathan Taylor (RB, IND, 15.2 proj): Always playable if he suits up. He's still getting a lead share of the carries.
• Tyler Warren (TE, IND, Q, 14.1 proj): A value TE at $4,900 if he's cleared.

Geno gets his old team. If Las Vegas controls the game on the road, the Raiders' core gets the volume.

• Brock Bowers (TE, LV, 15.5 proj): The top Raiders play in the heaviest TE offense on the slate.
• Ashton Jeanty (RB, LV, 17.1 proj): A volume producer. 45 targets keep his floor up even when the rushing is tough.
• Tre Tucker (WR, LV, 13.1 proj): He's been producing.
• Kirk Cousins (QB, LV, 16.5 proj): Still decent.

Jets: Breece Hall (Q) is the lead back if healthy (16.2 proj), but the Jets backfield is most likely a stay away. Garrett Wilson is good, not great, and Omar Cooper Jr. (14.6 proj) may be the better Jets receiver. The rest of the target tree is scattered, and Adonai Mitchell is dealing with a finger injury. Geno Smith (16.5) works in certain game scripts.

I'm expecting a low-scoring AFC North slog, not a shootout. If Cleveland controls it on the road, its young receivers get the work. Take one-offs here, not stacks.

• KC Concepcion Jr. (WR, CLE, 13.0 proj) and Denzel Boston (WR, CLE, 10.6): Cleveland's weapons. Boston has a 16.6-yard average target depth.
• Quinshon Judkins (RB, CLE, 13.3 proj): He's shown life when healthy.
• Jaylen Warren (RB, PIT, 16.9 proj): Underused, and Cleveland plays light boxes more than anyone, which is where he does damage.
• Aaron Rodgers (QB, 14.6) and DK Metcalf (WR, 12.1): Pittsburgh's passing pieces.

Harold Fannin Jr. is okay but losing targets to the young receivers. Jerry Jeudy is a contributor, not a fantasy play. Pat Freiermuth and Darnell Washington aren't fantasy-relevant.

A division game. If Atlanta controls the game on the road, the Falcons have a condensed target tree.

• Bijan Robinson (RB, ATL, 16.8 proj): The core play.
• Drake London (WR, ATL, 17.8 proj): Tampa blitzes a lot, and London sees 35% of the targets against the blitz.
• Kyle Pitts Sr. (TE, ATL, 13.6 proj): Re-emerging as the next read, and he has a long history of producing against Todd Bowles defenses.
• Michael Penix Jr. (QB, ATL, 16.8 proj): Looks good if he's healthy.

Tampa Bay is a fade. Baker Mayfield is playing through a thumb injury and the passing game is limited. I don't expect Bucky Irving to repeat last week.

• Zay Flowers (WR, BAL, 20.7 proj): The top play in this game against the defense that allows the most WR points in the league.
• Lamar Jackson (QB, BAL, Q, 22.7 proj): Pair him with Flowers if he's healthy.
• Josh Allen (QB, BUF, 24.1 proj): Works on his own, but the price matters.
• James Cook III (RB, BUF, 17.4 proj): Baltimore plays light boxes, and that's where Cook lives. Allen's rushing does eat into his carries.
• Derrick Henry (RB, BAL, 15.4 proj): Always a threat.

To get different: Ja'Kobi Lane (WR, BAL) as a big-play threat, only with Lamar and not with Tyler Huntley, and Keon Coleman (WR, BUF, 12.9 proj) as a dart, alone or stacked with Allen. I'm fading Mark Andrews, and Dalton Kincaid is hit or miss.

Cincinnati throws more than anyone in neutral spots, and Tennessee's defense gives up big plays.

• Joe Burrow (QB, CIN, 20.9 proj), Ja'Marr Chase (WR, 17.4) and Tee Higgins (WR, 17.3): The stack.
• Chase Brown (RB, CIN, 14.5 proj) and the Bengals DST: Add them to the Cincinnati build.

Fade Tennessee, except Carnell Tate (WR, 13.0 proj). Watch his shoulder. If Tate is out, Elic Ayomanor ($3,000) is the cheap pivot.

• Ja'Kobi Lane (WR, BAL, $3,400, 8.8 proj): A big-play role, but only if Lamar Jackson is active. Check Friday's injury report.
• Michael Mayer (TE, LV, $3,600, 7.2 proj): The TE2 who stays on the field in Las Vegas's heavy 12-personnel sets, in the most TE-heavy offense on the slate.
• Brenton Strange (TE, JAX, $4,000, 11.3 proj): 8, 8 and 7 targets in his last three games, with about 20% of the team's targets.
• Kendrick Bourne (WR, ARI, $3,900, 9.0 proj): Picks up vacated targets and fits the ARI@DAL stack.
• Elic Ayomanor (WR, TEN, $3,000): Only if Carnell Tate is ruled out.