Showdown: Patriots @ Bears (TNF, Oct 22)

Showdown time: da Bears and the Patriots of Bradyville. We've got a winner for Thursday Night Football. One game, six roster spots, and a whole lot of yards. Let's eat.

The Game

When their QB isn't Bagent, the Bears look like an offensive juggernaut most weeks. They run, they pass, they spread it around. And on defense? They can't stop any human being from throwing the ball against them. But I digress.

The Pats sucked. Now they don't suck. AJ Brown is back. He dropped 4 passes, but he doesn't suck. Doubs is gone, and the backfield is a mess with 3 guys getting touches.

My read: this one shoots out, and the Pats win it. Drake Maye is hot right now (23.7 FLEX proj (35.6 CPT proj), and he's averaging 23.6 FLEX points), and he's gonna show it.

The Goal

We're swinging for a big GPP win. A GPP is a tournament: thousands of lineups, top-heavy prizes, and you have to finish near the very top. So we're not playing it safe.

Captain Picks

Captain = your 1.5x player. He scores 1.5x points and costs 1.5x salary. Every projection below is labeled: FLEX proj is the standard number, CPT proj is 1.5x. Ownership figures are our own projected ownership (cash to large-field tournament range).

• AJ Brown (top play): get him involved early and often and keep him happy. 17.0 FLEX proj (25.5 CPT proj), full practice Wednesday, no injury tag. Our projected captain ownership has him at 12–16%, right at the top of the board with Swift and Maye in big tournaments. He's my top play, but if everybody and their brother is on him, I might switch it up.

Leverage captains: in showdown everybody's looking at the same one game, so there's no hiding anybody. These are guys with real roles. Odunze and Loveland are owned way below the top of the board, and Swift is about as popular as AJ but gets you the Bears side of the game. That's how you climb a tournament.

• Rome Odunze: on the field for 88% of snaps, and our projected captain ownership has him at just 2–4%. That's free real estate.
• D'Andre Swift: Swift is gonna get a load. He's handling about 44% of the Bears' carries, and Monangai is out for the third straight game. 17.3 FLEX proj (26.0 CPT proj), with projected captain ownership of 11–14%.
• Colston Loveland: 85% of snaps and 2–4% projected captain ownership. Real role, nobody on him.

No QB captain for me. Maye is our top projected scorer, so plenty of people will still captain him (11–35% projected captain ownership, highest in smaller contests). Skipping him at CPT keeps us different.

Cores

A core is the group of guys you build around. Fill in the rest.

• Core 1: AJ Brown, Drake Maye, Colston Loveland.
• Core 2: Rome Odunze at captain, plus AJ Brown and Caleb Williams.
• Core 3: Colston Loveland, Roschon Johnson, Drake Maye.

FLEX Notes

FLEX = the five regular spots, normal points and salary.

• Roschon Johnson: with Monangai out, he splits the backfield with Swift. 8.1 FLEX proj (12.2 CPT proj) for $4,400 FLEX ($6,600 CPT). Cheap piece of a real role.
• TreVeyon Henderson: too cheap to ignore, but he's a FLEX only. He's on the field for about 31% of snaps.
• Rhamondre Stevenson: blah. Fading.

Salary Savers

• Kalif Raymond: the best of the bunch. 5.7 FLEX proj (8.5 CPT proj) for $3,400 FLEX ($5,100 CPT).
• Cole Kmet and Corey Kiner: thin on volume. Use them only when you need the salary to fit your studs.

Kickers

Kickers aren't terrible tomorrow. If this game shoots out like I think, there'll be plenty of points on the board for both of them.

Showdown Projections

FLEX proj = standard points. CPT proj = 1.5x points at 1.5x salary.

Player	Pos	FLEX $	CPT $	FLEX proj	CPT proj
Drake Maye	QB NE	$10,600	$15,900	23.7	35.6
Caleb Williams	QB CHI	$10,400	$15,600	18.1	27.1
D'Andre Swift	RB CHI	$9,800	$14,700	17.3	26.0
A.J. Brown	WR NE	$9,000	$13,500	17.0	25.5
Luther Burden III	WR CHI	$8,400	$12,600	13.6	20.4
Rome Odunze	WR CHI	$7,400	$11,100	10.0	15.0
Rhamondre Stevenson	RB NE	$7,800	$11,700	9.9	14.9
Hunter Henry	TE NE	$6,200	$9,300	9.8	14.7
Colston Loveland	TE CHI	$6,400	$9,600	9.1	13.6
DeMario Douglas	WR NE	$6,600	$9,900	9.0	13.5
Cairo Santos	K CHI	$5,000	$7,500	8.4	12.6
Roschon Johnson	RB CHI	$4,400	$6,600	8.1	12.2
Andy Borregales	K NE	$4,800	$7,200	7.1	10.7
Bears	DST CHI	$4,000	$6,000	7.0	10.4
Efton Chism III	WR NE	$2,800	$4,200	6.7	10.0
Patriots	DST NE	$3,800	$5,700	6.6	9.8
Eli Raridon	TE NE	$2,200	$3,300	6.1	9.1
Kalif Raymond	WR CHI	$3,400	$5,100	5.7	8.5
TreVeyon Henderson	RB NE	$5,800	$8,700	4.2	6.3
Cole Kmet	TE CHI	$2,400	$3,600	2.9	4.3
Kyle Williams	WR NE	$1,800	$2,700	2.7	4.1

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May be wrong, but that's my approach. Clock in, build, and let's go Bradyville.