SECOND SHIFT Spent some time in the optimizer, trying different things to see what we'd get. Here's where I'm at. Everybody's going to Ford Field at 3:25, so getting off Gibbs, Love and Golden is the key to this slate. Let's go game by game.
Own = projected ownership. Ceiling = a strong-game outcome.
SF@ATL (noon CT, dome)
This is the pivot point. Dome, two offenses that can score, and Atlanta needs a win, so they should be playing from behind and throwing a lot. It's a good way to get on and off the other expensive game.
| Player | Sal | Proj | Own | Ceil |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan (ATL RB) | $8.5K | 22.0 | 21% | 36.9 |
| CMC (SF RB) | $7.6K | 24.5 | 20% | 41.4 |
| Kittle (SF TE) | $5.7K | 19.5 | 13% | 36.1 |
| Purdy (SF QB) | $6.6K | 22.7 | 7% | 36.0 |
| London (ATL WR) | $7.5K | 17.2 | 14% | 30.2 |
| Pitts (ATL TE) | $4.0K | 12.3 | 5% | 22.7 |
- Bijan is my core play. He can break any slate, and I think he breaks this one.
- CMC can always go off, and he has the highest ceiling in the game.
- Kittle and Purdy are low-owned, and they're the cleanest SF stack.
- Cooks ($4.2K, 9.0) gets the targets Evans and Deebo leave behind.
IND@MIN (noon CT)
The Vikings defense is really the only play of interest in this game. Keenan Allen ($4.8K, 13.8) gets the bump with Warren out.
MIA@NYJ (noon CT)
Sneaky shootout. Malik Willis ($4.7K QB, 14.8, 1% owned) to Malik Washington ($4.9K WR, 12.3, 3% owned) is a cheap way to get different off GB@DET, and it leaves the money for Bijan. Geno Smith ($5.1K NYJ QB, 14.3, 2% owned) is the run-back side, along with Omar Cooper Jr. ($4.1K WR, 11.5). You can always play Garrett Wilson ($6.5K WR, 15.1). Breece Hall is a game-time call, and Jets inactives come out around 10:30 AM CT.
CIN@BAL (noon CT)
This game can score. Ja'Kobi Lane ($3.4K BAL WR, 7.3, 3% owned, 13.8 ceiling) is my sleeper if Lamar plays. Lamar is a game-time call, and Ravens inactives come out around 10:30 AM CT.
TB@CAR (noon CT)
Baker's back, so the targets are condensed again. Bryce Young and Jalen Coker are core plays for me, and Coker is really underrated.
| Player | Sal | Proj | Own | Ceil |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coker (CAR WR) | $6.1K | 15.5 | 8% | 28.8 |
| B. Young (CAR QB) | $5.9K | 17.4 | 4% | 27.5 |
| Baker (TB QB) | $5.5K | 16.7 | 3% | 26.6 |
DEN@ARI (3:05 PM CT)
Arizona can move the ball on Denver. McBride ($7.4K TE, 16.8, 31 ceiling) is always good, but he's a DFS stay-away for me at that price.
GB@DET (3:25 PM CT)
The chalk game. Gibbs and Amon-Ra are great plays, and everybody's going to have them. The GPP angle is getting away from this game.
| Player | Sal | Proj | Own |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gibbs | $9.8K | 30.9 | 60% |
| Amon-Ra | $7.8K | 19.8 | 25% |
| Goff | $6.8K | 19.7 | 13% |
| Love | $6.0K | 23.2 | 7% |
| Golden | $6.0K | 19.8 | 15% |
| Kraft (GB TE) | $4.7K | 10.5 | 7% |
- Tucker Kraft is the sneaky low-owned Green Bay play (19.4 ceiling).
- If you do play this game, Green Bay is the side. I'd rather get off it entirely.
NYG@HOU (noon CT)
Total toss-up. J.J. McCarthy ($4.8K, 13.1) and the Giants offense are unknowns. Skattebo ($5.1K, 1% owned) is a league-winner if he starts. Nico Collins ($7.2K, 15.5) and Dalton Schultz ($3.6K TE, 10.2) are the reliable Houston targets. Nabers ($6.8K, 20.2, 7% owned) is a big pay-up spot.
LAR@LV (3:25 PM CT)
My favorite game. Same 3:25 kickoff as Ford Field, with a lot less attention.
- Jeanty ($6.5K RB, 15.7, 6% owned). Love him, especially if Mike Washington Jr. ends up sitting.
- Cousins ($5.8K, 16.4, 3%) with Bowers ($7.7K TE, 16.2, 10%). Paying up at TE is exactly where the field won't go.
- I want to get away from LA, but Kyren could see more volume, especially if Puka sits. Rams inactives come out around 1:55 PM CT.
Cores and more thoughts on NYG@HOU coming Sunday morning. Check inactives before lock.