Week 7 Early Look: Game by Game

The Atlanta Side

Atlanta comes in off a 31-23 home loss to the Bears, and the final score makes it look closer than it was. Chicago beat them through the air and on the ground. They led 14-0 after their first two drives and led 31-7 early in the fourth before Atlanta scored twice late to make it a one-score game.

• Through the air: Caleb Williams went 30/36 for 305 yards and fed his young pass catchers:
• Luther Burden III: 8 targets, 8 catches, 95 yards
• Colston Loveland: 7 targets, 6 catches, 65 yards, 1 TD
• On the ground: Chicago ran 33 times for 98 yards and 3 TDs (Swift 16-44-2, Roschon Johnson 13-51-1), and ran 73 plays to Atlanta's 50.

Atlanta trailed most of that game, and I expect them to trail again here. That makes possession the whole story for the Falcons: they have to stay on the field and keep this 49ers offense on the sideline.

Bijan needs the ball. He had just 9 carries for 61 yards, plus 2 catches for -8 yards, against Chicago and wasn't a factor. He's one of the best players in the league and is averaging 6.8 yards a carry, so feed him.

The target tree is condensed. I expect the targets to go Drake London, then Bijan, then Kyle Pitts, which is a tight group for Michael Penix Jr. to throw to. Last week London saw 10 targets (4 catches, 62 yards), and Pitts caught 5 of his 7 targets for 60 yards and 2 TDs. Penix finished 19 of 33 for 225 yards and 3 TDs, mostly in catch-up mode.

The San Francisco Side

On the Niners' side, it's CMC and Kittle. SF controlled Washington on Monday night, building a 20-point lead and winning 23-17 to stay undefeated at 6-0. CMC ran in two short TDs, and Kittle scored on the opening drive.

Purdy is playing at an MVP pace. Through six games he has 1,460 yards, 14 TDs, 2 INTs, a 69.6% completion rate and a 118.1 passer rating, and he leads the league in passing TDs. With Deebo out, Pearsall on IR and Evans questionable with the Achilles injury, the volume runs through CMC and Kittle.

Top Plays

Projections come from the Clock Out Model, my own model (recent usage and expected points from nflverse data, adjusted for team total and opponent) and will update before lock.

How It Plays in DFS

Expect a fast-paced game with Atlanta playing from behind, which means volume for London, Bijan and Pitts while SF's efficiency keeps CMC, Kittle and Purdy in play for big games. You can stack this game a lot of ways, but the early looks will be heavily owned.

Stack ideas:

• Purdy + Kittle + CMC with London coming back is the main build.
• Purdy + Kittle with Bijan coming back.
• Penix + London + Pitts with CMC coming back is the trailing-script stack.
• Bijan + CMC as an RB pair if you're fading both passing games.

Deep Play (Milly Maker build)

If you're building for the Milly Maker, here's where I'd dig deep in this game:

• Brandin Cooks (SF WR, $4,200, Clock Out projection 7.3) only comes into play if Mike Evans sits. Evans aggravated his Achilles tendinitis Monday night against Washington, and Kyle Shanahan said he hopes Evans can play Sunday. With the Week 8 bye right after this game, SF could play it safe. If Evans is out, Cooks moves up in a thin 49ers receiver room. If Evans plays, leave Cooks alone. His projection already blends in the chance that Evans sits, and it would go up further if Evans is ruled out.
• Jahan Dotson (ATL WR, $3,700, Clock Out projection 9.0) is my large-field dart. If Atlanta is chasing points, someone besides London and Pitts has to catch passes, and I don't expect many people to play him. He's a cheap way to be different in a 150-max build.

The Minnesota Side

Minnesota is fresh off a Week 6 bye and still undefeated at 5-0. Indy, meanwhile, said goodbye to its GM: the Colts fired Chris Ballard on Monday (Oct 19), the day after a 26-20 home loss to the previously winless Titans. Assistant GM Ed Dodds runs personnel for the rest of the year. Rough week in Indy.

Kyler has been so-so. He's 69 of 101 for 662 yards with 2 TDs and 2 INTs this season. But his last game before the bye was his sharpest: 24 of 30, 229 yards, a TD, no picks, plus 51 yards on the ground in a 23-13 win at New Orleans. Coming off a week of rest, indoors, his weapons should be close to full strength:

• Justin Jefferson (ankle): missed Week 4, then played Week 5 after limited practices all week. He has no Week 7 injury designation as of Oct 20; the first practice report comes out Wednesday, so keep an eye on it.
• Jordan Addison (hamstring) and T.J. Hockenson (concussion) are listed questionable on DraftKings. Watch their practice reports.

Kyler to JJ is a great play. Off a bye and with Indy in the dumps, I could see this one turning into more of a shootout than the 41.5 total suggests.

Don't forget about Addison. Jordan Addison is the Vikings' No. 2 receiver, and he's been dealing with a hamstring injury. He's listed questionable on DraftKings, but Kevin O'Connell said Tuesday that Addison is expected to return to practice Wednesday, and the bye came at the right time. If he practices this week, he's a cheaper way into this passing game than Jefferson. And if Jefferson's ankle limits him at all, Addison is next in line for targets against a Colts team that's in rough shape. Watch Wednesday's and Thursday's practice reports before locking him in.

Or skip the passing game and just focus on the run. Indy's run defense is not very good (see previous games lol). The Colts have allowed 735 rushing yards through six games (122.5 per game, 4.8 yards a carry, 24th in the league). Aaron Jones leads the backfield, and Jordan Mason (thumb) was designated to return from IR on Monday, so watch whether he's active and how they split the work.

The Indianapolis Side

On the Indy side, you can always play JT. Jonathan Taylor had 6 rushing TDs through his first five games, even at a career-low 3.9 yards per carry.

Anything else against this Brian Flores-led defense is a hard pass. It's not worth the salary. Minnesota has the No. 1 defense in the league by points allowed: 64 points through five games (12.8 per game), 86.6 rushing yards per game, 10 takeaways and only 3 passing TDs allowed. Daniel Jones has 4 TDs to 6 INTs on the year.

I'm not playing Keenan Allen or Laquon Treadwell lol. Tyler Warren (groin) is listed questionable on DraftKings.

Top Plays

Projections come from the Clock Out Model, my own model (recent usage and expected points from nflverse data, adjusted for team total and opponent). Players listed questionable carry a 15% haircut. Everything will update before lock.

How It Plays in DFS

This is a Minnesota-or-nothing game, with one exception: JT. Two ways to attack it:

• Kyler + Jefferson as a cheap QB stack at $12,700 combined, with JT coming back if you want a piece of the Indy side.
• Skip the Vikings' passing game and play Aaron Jones (or Mason if he's active) against a soft Colts run defense, paired with the Vikings DST against a Colts offense that turns the ball over.

Whatever you do, leave Allen, Treadwell and the rest of the Colts' passing game to someone else.

The Miami Side

Ooo, Miami. They're 0-5 and already vacationing. But hear me out: this is a sneaky DFS team, and the matchup sets up for them going forward. They're also coming off a bye, so they've had two weeks to rest.

Malik Willis can run. He hasn't been running much, but he has the ability: 27 carries for 186 yards (6.9 a carry) and 2 rushing TDs through five games. The passing has been rough, with 849 yards, 2 TDs, 4 INTs and a 68.4 rating.

He has no receivers, but they're all cheap and they all get targets.

• Malik Washington ($4,900): 36 targets, 23 catches, 262 yards. He's the clear WR1 here.
• Chris Bell ($3,400): 14 targets, 5 catches, 92 yards.
• Greg Dulcich ($3,200 TE): 17 targets, 13 catches, 127 yards.
• Kevin Coleman Jr. ($3,000): 17 targets and 1 TD. Caleb Douglas (ankle) is listed out.

Bell and Washington should both see a lot of snaps.

Or maybe they just keep doing what they've been doing and feed Ollie. Ollie Gordon II ($5,500) leads the team with 47 carries for 236 yards (5.0 a carry) and 3 TDs. De'Von Achane is on IR, so the backfield belongs to Ollie.

Miami's guys are questionable at best as DFS plays, but we're looking for salary, and the Jets kinda suck. Jets will Jets.

The New York Side

With that being said, feed Braelon Allen ($5,900). Look at what other teams have done on the ground against Miami. By fantasy points, the Dolphins rank 30th against running backs, allowing 28.3 a game. They give up 25.2 RB carries a game (29th) and 39.4 receiving yards a game to backs (28th). Allen has been heating up, with 24 carries for 116 yards and a TD against Cleveland and 17 for 78 against New England. His salary has gone up, but he's still a good play.

Breece Hall ($6,000) hasn't practiced (quad) and is listed questionable, and how that resolves is the whole story for Allen. Even with Breece in the mix, the Clock Out Model has Allen right next to him.

Garrett Wilson ($6,500) is always a decent play. He has 48 targets for a 35-418-3 line on the year. Keep an eye on Adonai Mitchell ($4,500) coming back. He's missed time after a small hand procedure, and DK currently lists him as doubtful. Omar Cooper Jr. ($4,100) had 103 yards last week with him out.

The Jets forgot they have a first-round tight end (No. 16 overall in April). Kenyon Sadiq ($3,300), use him. He went 7 catches for 105 yards against Detroit in Week 3, then got quiet and went through the concussion protocol. Miami ranks 29th against TEs (19.8 fantasy points a game allowed).

Top Plays

Projections come from the Clock Out Model, my own model (recent usage and expected points from nflverse data, adjusted for team total and opponent), and will update before lock.

How It Plays in DFS

Ultimately this is a stay-away game, but there are cheap pieces you can use to free up salary for your studs:

• Willis ($4,700) as a cheap QB with rushing upside, with Washington or Bell stacked alongside him.
• Sadiq ($3,300) as a TE punt against a soft Miami TE defense.
• Braelon Allen as the RB call, especially if Breece sits.

And who knows? Two bad teams give up 30 points apiece, and you've got a Milly Maker lineup.